There are strategic victories, in which combatants improve their positions on a map, and tactical victories, which allow combatants to advance their overall war objectives. Lyman was a strategic Ukrainian victory.
For Ukraine, Lyman is on a major rail line that extends to Kharkiv and, eventually, to Kyiv, and can feed Ukrainian forces east of Oskil and north of the Siverskyi Donets rivers. A Ukrainian priority will be to repair all rail bridges that reconnect this line. Taking down those bridges should be a Russian priority, but they’ll fire on civilian apartment buildings and bus stops instead. This rail line also extends through Siversk to Bakhmut, strengthening those defenses. Bakhmut is currently uncut, but additional rail connections make it difficult for Russia to isolate its city of passion (the only place left where it can continue to press on the offensive).
For Russia, Lyman was a bastion defending its positions in the tri-oblast region (Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk). Given that Russia pretends that the latter two are now Mother Russia, their pretended border is now exposed to Ukrainian aggression, and their fight to establish new defensive lines at Kremina proves that they are ready. were not
Cremina is of The reward of the moment. Look at the map—with Kremina, Ukraine’s direct shot isn’t all the way to Svyatov, which would open up the entire mass of red at the top of this map, and also push Rubizne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk to the southeast, which was occupied by Russia. Big expense just a few months ago. This is like a fulcrum, forcing Russia to defend critical points at once, and its importance is not lost on Russian military pundits.
War criminal Igor Girkin:
According to the information received, the armed forces of Ukraine have taken full control of the village of Torskoye in the northeast of Liman. There is nothing critical in this, but now the question arises of keeping Kremenaya – one of the main points providing the northern part of the defense of Lysychansk. Under no circumstances should you leave Chachagiri.
Another Russian military blogger:
The enemy is on the way to Kremenaya. The sounds of a distant battle between federal troops and Ukrainians are heard in the city. Western outskirts of the city under artillery fire. The main shock is expected from the northwest. The total number of enemy troops has been estimated by fighters and commanders at around 12,000 men. […]
At this time, Russian troops have full control of the road from Rubizhne to Kremeneya and the village of Zitlovka. Chervonopopovka and Peschannoye are a gray area.
Most likely, Hoholz’s plans included the rapid capture of Peschanoy, the dominant height located at 160–7. In the event that this height passes under the control of the enemy, the defense from the east of Kremenaya will lose its meaning.
Cremina is located in a valley, surrounded on its southern, eastern and western sides by forested hills up to 150 meters high. Not the highest of hills, but enough to allow Ukrainian forces to fire into Russian defensive positions at will.
As Russian troops reel in, everyone has forgotten the celebration of the “unification” of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. Here are some ways Russia’s friends are coping:
1) Denial of reality
(From Friday, September 30:)
Delusional preacher Will Shriver, usually excellent, hasn’t posted anything since Lyman’s fall on Saturday.
After Lyman’s fall, Big Surge took his Twitter account private. This is its own special type of competition.
These propagandists have been comparing the current Ukrainian offensive to the Battle of the Bulge since the beginning of the Kharkiv offensive. Equality is not quite working for them.
2. Russia is bleeding Ukraine dry
It is strangely believed that Ukraine lost thousands of men and hundreds of equipment in the Lyman offensive, yet there is zero photographic evidence of such losses. If you look at Telegram, it’s the opposite. I literally had nightmares last night from some video I saw of the “Road of Life” outside Lyman, being cut up by Ukrainian artillery as Russian troops desperately tried to get out. Don’t look for it, I promise. I won’t even describe some of the things I saw, and please, don’t add or describe in the comments.
3. Guys, it’s okay. People still like us!
Honestly, they do should Be angry this is the most honest competition.
Military blogger with 130,000 followers on Telegram:
So, comrades Shoigu and Gerasimov, they want to ask here, but it seems that it is not right and they are peeing their pants so far. Does the president know what’s going on? Who reports to him? Where are the supplies? Where is Armata? Where is everyone? How did it happen? Fucked up? sold? Where do you share? Were there at all? According to Izium, Balaklea, Lyman – why did they do no evil? Why is the direction not strengthened? Why didn’t you prepare for 8 months? On the move – are you doing it intentionally or unintentionally? Why can’t this be done properly?
The Armata is Russia’s newest modern battle tank, which never appears on the battlefield. Others wonder what happened to Russia’s vaunted air force, also AWOL for most of the war. “Where is the supply,” we have been asking since the first days of the war.
5. False hope
“We won because of all the things that haven’t happened and there’s no evidence that they will!” There is also much hope on Europe’s “cold” this winter, cut off from Russian gas.
So to be clear, Russia gave Soviet equipment to its best trained soldiers, to “fix” this, and now they will give their best modern gear to untrained mobile recruits?
6. Ukraine is getting a lot of help!
Of course, Russia is spending $65 billion per year For decades Building your own war machine.
7. Attacking the Russian leadership
Another version of this coup pretends that Russia is somehow backing down:
If only Russia as a matter of fact Fought war with rockets and missiles and warships and brutality, then Russia will win. Instead, Russia was trying, check notes, “to avoid killing Ukrainian soldiers.”
8. It was NATO, not Ukraine
The Russians are so invested in the narrative of the Ukrainians that their “little brothers” are incapable of handling anything on their own, that the idea of the world’s “second army” losing to them is incomprehensible. That is why the Russian state TV Malcolm Nance keeps showing up.
9. A dose of reality
Meanwhile, this boy will soon find himself falling out of a skyscraper window: