It has been a surprise four days Because Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive in Kharkiv Oblast that has completely redrawn the map of Russia’s illegal aggression. On Wednesday, we said the progress that Ukraine made in one day was huge, as they encircled Balaklia and advanced toward that intersection of Volokhiv Yar. The next day, we called Fast Advance Shevchenkov Bold, but worried about whether a narrow predominance to the east could make Ukraine vulnerable. By Friday morning, it was clear that the advance was staggering, with Ukrainian forces on the edge of Kupyansk. and then …
Hit with a really big hammer like a hard, cheap, vase, the Russian hold on the entire central part of Kharkiv Oblast … crumbled. Everywhere, Ukrainian troops are advancing, and everywhere Russian troops are fleeing before they see a blue and yellow banner.
Within 24 hours, Kupyansk was liberated, but not before news could even arrive that Ukraine was knocking on Izyum’s door. Still other Ukrainian forces crossed the Siversky Donets River to march into towns and cities that Russia did not care to garrison. And even as Russian forces fled from a possible encirclement within Izyum, Ukrainian forces turned east, north, and south. Russia is not just retreating from Kharkiv, it is waking up to a day in which This war has been lost.
Honestly, that day probably came a while ago. As Koss noted last week, Russia had clearly concluded—it had reached the point where intransigence, over-extension, and its own logistical and command failures made the Russians a coherent military power. was rendered completely incapable of working. What did Kos say again?
Historians will someday mark the day when Russia officially ended its “special military operation,” and when they do, I suspect it will be this first week in September.
This is a very good prediction. Three days later, the Kharkiv counter-offensive began, punching through a fragile front line to discover much … nothing, nothing, in the Russian backfield.
no This war is not over. Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin’s ego and sheer brutality means that many more people, including thousands of Russians, will die between now and the last gun being put down. But, as far as Russia’s plans go, this is pretty much it lost.
Russia can move pieces around the board. It may also make some minor progress in one place or the other. However, if it tries to wrest pieces away from forces holding Kherson to shore up Donbas or pin down the southern coast, Ukraine will simply turn around and take those areas. And the hell of it is … Ukraine is going to take those territories anyway.
Here is our own David NeerCiting his father’s memories today.
The spring of 1944 was a full year before Germany’s surrender in May of 1945. With autumn not far away, Ukraine may have to go through a cold winter before the last rusted Russian tank is pulled out of Donetsk. or, you know, No. Because I would place a huge bet on the modern equipment that Ukraine now has to power through the cold stretch of January, I would rather have the mish-mash, poorly maintained, corruption-ridden sweepings that Russia has left behind for its invasion.
This, this illegal, unprovoked attack directed by a man who thought his army of merciless thugs was unstoppable, had already been a long war. It is not ending today. But this will do Ended with Russia in complete defeat. For all this cost, all this blood they will have nothing to show for it. Nothing but decades of international isolation to think about the consequences of handing over power to a bloody jackass.
Russia has lost the war. Now how sad and drawn out is that they want to conclude.
And now it’s time … in the multiverse, with Tanki
Pro-Russian accounts are demonstrating their ability to spin at super-high speed in response to Russia’s collapse in Kharkiv. Strategic stockpiles of high-tensile strength copium are being deployed to represent an alternate reality that makes it clear … Russia may surrender, but pro-Russian tanks will never surrender to the facts. There is always another universe where Russia is winning.
It actually came from Friday, when every tanky account was singing, “Just wait for tomorrow.”
The same account was also in full denial mode on Saturday, retweeting this gem.
That map was a back-to-back description of what was happening in Kharkiv. The whole thing was a conspiracy, you see, in which Russia cleverly left a hole in the line to draw Ukrainian troops into a “killing zone” where a “squad” of Russian special forces would annihilate the entire Ukrainian army!
A bit about the Ukrainian losses being heavy? This is a part of pure copy straight from the Russian video above. It feeds into the new Give a tanky justification for what happened. which is on its way to classifying everything that happened in Kharkiv Oblast, including the six-month-old Izyum major, another feint. As Kyiv was attacked. Stupid Ukrainian! All Russia has to do is send thousands of men into an area, and lose thousands along the way, and Ukraine is distracted. Works every time.
But let’s continue. This might be my absolute favorite for a day.
Yes, Ukraine actually fell for it, liberating over 3,000 square kilometers of territory, three major cities, and over 100 towns and villages. They are so screwed.
wait It could be a better one.
Honestly, I could do this all day (caps from HT) but, sadly, I can do Do this all day. Look above, where a day before Izyum, the “It’s all a trap” map got over 2,000 likes. There are many tanky accounts, and at least 10% of them are not even getting paid in rubles.
But every now and then, just for a moment, a little sniff of reality creeps in.
You don’t worry about ghosts. That “Kherson is Russia!” is back to screaming. In his posts. And I’m sure he still will be … long after the last Russian soldier has left Kherson.
Reports from Vovchansk indicate that the Russian garrison there withdrew from the city and negotiated terms of surrender. Multiple reports suggest that Ukraine is now in control of this major transit hub located just 7 km from the Russian border and less than 40 km from Belgorod.
Honestly, if Russia can’t hold Vovchansk, a place it knows is critical, in its own backyard, what can it hold?
Ukraine has reportedly secured Donetsk airport. Note that this airport was on the western edge of the city, and was under Ukrainian control until last month. Still, it marks another major reversal for Russia on a day when it is being pushed back on all sides.
A number of things are happening, including military movements on the Moscow Ring Road, which are starting to make people realize that mobilization is imminent. Under a mobilization, Russia would be able to call everyone in the reserves, including women, into active service. They would be able to draft anyone into “civilian service,” which, depending on its definition, could be almost anyone.
Russia has never declared full mobilization, and the law actually prohibits mobilization for combat outside Russian territory. This is part of why Russia has been so keen to declare parts of Ukraine “Russia forever”.
Still, Putin may try to do so by pointing to a helicopter attack on the Belgorod fuel depot, or the explosion of an ammunition supply near the border, as claiming that “Russia is under attack.” How one will get through this in Russia remains to be seen.
Well … finally I couldn’t resist making a map. But I compromised in that I didn’t actually try to change control over the 100+ towns and villages, and I didn’t try to reconcile the difference between Ukraine’s “control” and the land that still remains. In dispute.” Basically on this map, the blue area represents the parts of the counteroffensive that Ukraine liberated before half a day on Friday. The rest is either truly in dispute, or has since been liberated. has gone – without any certainty that it has been encircled or secured. This includes many small places which were the first line of Russian control on Wednesday, and for which I have not been able to get good information.