Some days, pulling out the maps is a lot more fun. This is one of those days.
During the month of August, something changed in Russia’s illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Something that the Ukrainian military was constantly hitting was Russian facilities of command, control and supply well behind the front lines. How much of that change was directly due to the HIMARS O’Clock! is debatable. But whatever the source of those shots, the Ukrainian military has reported destroying a total of 200 Russian military facilities, including supply depots, repair centers and command posts.
As for the gains made by Russia in the last few days, it looks like Russia has finally pushed a path through the mines and debris in Piski and reached the bridge to the west. That’s about it. Where is Ukraine moving on the ground now? Where is it not?
Looking at Kharkiv, I would like to point out in this week’s announcements the combined Ukrainian military command of Novovozhnesenske and Novovoskresenske, two towns in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast. This makes me feel much better about my difficulties in labeling the correct Blahodatne or Kyselyvka. Or throw my hands up on another telegram message that mentions Ivanivka.
Those who have suggested that the main effort in Kherson is in the north, and that the cutting of the bridges was not just across the Dnipro River, but the Inhulets River, to isolate the northern part of the oblast (a group that includes Kos). are To score more “I was perfect” points by day. Ukraine has now taken over the long-held Russian position at Vysokopilya along with all the surrounding villages. What is the difference between Novovoznesenske and Novovoskresenske? Ukraine has already liberated the former and is now engaged in liberating the latter. There are also unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian troops as far as Novoleksandryvka, but these remain unconfirmed. In any case, this is a lot of novo.
Update: As I write this, it has been confirmed that Ukraine has now liberated Novovoskrenske. So this map made this morning is already out of date. Ukraine is moving very fast.
At the Ukrainian bridgehead still extending over the Inhulets, not only did Ukrainian forces double back across the Russian-built pontoon bridge to capture Blahodativka, they also pressed on to gain Bezimene, which Russia called “the second line.” ” was considered part of Don’t expect to hear much from this bridgehead today, because even though they’re still moving, it’s a long way to the next village which is more than a crossroads. They’re really in Russia’s backfield right now, and where they go should be really informative. Will they push to the road to Nova Kakhovka? Cut west to take in more towns along the river? Predicting where this force will go next has become a sucking game, and I’m not going to try.
At the south end of the oblast, I reluctantly deleted the big blue blob that had come to Tomina Balka. It does not indicate any Russian advance, or withdrawal of Ukrainian forces. This indicates that this capture, which was reported by CNN a week ago, has still not been confirmed by anyone else and likely never happened. I’d be happy to put it back if there’s any news from that area, but right now, it doesn’t seem like a particularly active area of contention. And, just to be clear, Ukraine took Oleksandrivka earlier this week, but if they still have it, it’s anyone’s guess. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that Olexsandrivka translates to a “place where everyone keeps walking.”
For those who are still getting “Noah, Russia didn’t as a matter of fact Lose Viscopilia in their inbox is a tweet from a Twitter account that apparently No Murderous Russian warlord, angry because they didn’t let him become King of Donbass Igor Girkin.
As reports indicate that Ukraine is actually massing forces for its own counteroffensive in Donetsk Oblast, Russian operations in eastern Ukraine over the past two days appear to have been mostly limited to continued attempts to reach Soledar and Bakhmut. Therefore, each city that is white on this map represents a different Russian attempt to advance. While absolutely none of these offensives have gained Russia a meter of territory, all are certain to have increased costs in men and materiel. Frankly, it seems some kind of perverted miracle that Russia can still muster the troops and get them to mount one of these attacks. By now, every soldier on the Eastern Front must have seen or heard about a hundred failures.
This line is about where it has been for the past two months, as Russia’s rapid advance has continued since the fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The main targets are Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, about 40 km to the west, which are not seen here. Unless something drastic changes, Russia seems unlikely to ever come within sight of those places.
Indeed, the push to take the rest of Donbas appears to have broken down when Russia failed to capture the stubborn town of Bohorodychne, south of Izyum. Unable to pressure Sloviansk from two sides, Ukraine has been able to put the brakes on that advance from the east.
In the region south of Izyum, Ukraine is comfortably holding current positions and pressing Russia along a broad front. This involves passing through heavily mined debris from the west along Dovenke and Highway P79. That area in the forests west of Izyum has more or less returned to Russian control, but that appears to be because Ukraine is no longer conducting hit-and-run raids against Russian forces stationed in the area.
Instead, Ukraine has launched a more serious push north, liberating the village of Verbyvka and moving into a long-standing Russian position at Balaklia. Like Vysokopilya in the Kherson region, the city has been an important Russian outpost for launching attacks to the west, as well as locking down a strong defensive position in Russian control of this part of the map. Some reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have already taken over most of the city. Others say that Russian forces are abandoning a whole chain of villages and towns along that stretch of the Siversky Donets River.
Whatever is happening, Russian forces in the region are in complete panic. This move has taken them completely by surprise. Or not, everywhere called Russian bots.
There is no panic … except all panic. Meanwhile, Ukraine is feeling so excited about the retaliation that President Zelensky is expected to speak in the next few hours specifically about what is happening at Balaklia.
The Russians seem to have brought down the bridge between Balaklia and the barracks to the south. But that could happen before Ukraine launches an attack. In any case… there is no panic.
Note: Careful observers may notice that the area at the top of this map has shifted slightly towards Russia. It’s not because anything has changed there, but because about two months ago, I mistook Volokhiv Yar for Vovchi Yar. This seems to be the topic of the day.
These are not the only areas where the fighting is heavy. Over the past month, Russia has been pushing back toward Kharkiv, recapturing some small villages and moving around Ukrainian forces to take border towns to the west. But on Tuesday, fighting continued in many areas, with Ukraine bringing in new troops against Russian positions.
For those who last saw the area more than a month ago, when Ukraine liberated Rubizhne, Ternova, Veslay, and was right on the edge of Liptsi, seeing those areas in red is certainly a relief. And disappointing. But the biggest, most important action in the region is now taking place after the first Ukrainian counteroffensive in Starai Saltiv and the expulsion of Russian troops from the Kharkiv suburbs.
This is happening near the northwest corner of this map, where Ukraine is engaged in fighting at Kozacha Lopan. This is one of Russia’s other big “hard points”. As at Balaklia and Vysokopilya, it represents Ukraine going directly to Russia’s most difficult position—and also the place where many supplies are stored and where command and control resources are located. Kozacha is the stretch from Lopan to Kudivka where Russia is excavating, mining, and other defenses around that major border crossing on highway E105. It was the main port between Russia and Ukraine before the war, and it is still an important route for supplying Russian forces in the region.
Remember that, to the east, all those bridges over the Siversky Donets are still down. Russia has to supply its troops in Kharkiv by bringing supplies over the border, and for the most part, that means crossing east of Kozacha Lopan. The battle seems overwhelming everywhere Along this line. North of Dementiivka. Supivaka Velki Prakhodi It’s all on fire.
To the west, border towns that Russia claimed last month appear to have reverted back to Ukraine. It is likely that Russia never deployed enough troops in these towns to seriously occupy them. They were only trying to draw the Ukrainian forces away from the existing lines. Now they have given up on the border skirmishes as the fighting gets more serious.
Meanwhile, in the “Strange Things Happen in War” category…
Just watched NoI am happy to see this result.