What makes SLF’s decision all the more remarkable is that the organization, which has close ties to Mitch McConnell, appears to have: As of June 30, the PAC had $105 million in the bank and no funds in the two months since. Doubts have increased. That’s in stark contrast to the NRSC, which had just $23 million at the end of July (although super PACs, unlike party committees, can accept donations of unlimited size).
So why pull back? SLF’s own president, Steven Law, claimed that “other offensive opportunities … have become more and more competitive,” though at this point, Georgia and Nevada are the only states he can potentially have in mind. (And note that the NRSC also recently rejected $1.5 million. TV time later). But more telling—if he’s being truthful—is Law’s admission that his group is facing “an unexpected expense in Ohio,” a reference to the fact that SLF recently announced that it will be there. Buckeye is pouring $28 million into the state to bail out a hapless GOP candidate. , JD Vance.
The The New York TimesShane Goldmaker also proposed another theory: SLF Trying to send a message To Masters’ main benefactor, billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel. Thiel’s own super PAC spent $15 million earlier this month to help Masters—an employee and protégé—win the Republican primary, as it did for Vance in May. But like some kind of deadly god entity, it seems Thiel gave birth to the Masters and Vance only to leave the universe we know as the General Election.
So now, according to this argument, the SLF is desperately hoping to signal Thiel and all but force him to intervene. If true, however, the fact that the best-funded Republican super PAC has to resort to drastic advertising cuts to attract the attention of one of the GOP’s wealthiest megadonors is not indicative of a cohesive party. And even if Thiel returns to the playing field late, he’ll have to pay higher advertising rates, as rates rise closer to Election Day.
Republicans still insist that Arizona is the game, and simply given its swing-state status, it probably is. But if he ultimately abandons Masters, the path back to the majority for the GOP, which is facing increasingly likely losses in Pennsylvania, will be unusually narrow.
● Mo-sen: YouGov for Saint Louis University: Eric Schmitt (R): 49, Trudy Busch Valentine (D): 38
● NC-Sen: A Senate Majority PAC affiliate has launched a new ad attacking Rep. Ted Budd for supporting a national ban on abortion without the exception of rape or immorality that would criminalize those who provide it. The spot is part of a $750,000 purchase after about $2 million in previous expenses. While SMP and their counterparts at DSCC previously did not include North Carolina in their fall advertising reservations earlier this spring, they are subject to change in light of changing conditions, and it is worth noting that SMP still Trying to get this race on board since it’s almost September.
● FL-Gov: The DGA released a poll from an impression research conducted a day before the Aug. 23 Democratic primary showing newly elected nominee Charlie Crist trailing GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis by a slim 51-46 margin. There have been very few polls of the race released this summer. However, this latest result is a few points better for Crist than a recent survey by GOP firm Cherry Communications of DeSantis’ allies that showed him leading 51-43 and a poll from the University of North Florida that gave the governor a 50-par lead. 42 leads, both of which were conducted in early August.
● KS-Govt: State Sen. Dennis Pyle, a former Republican who left his party earlier this year to become an independent, has qualified for the November ballot, election officials announced Thursday. Pyle was aided in his quest by Kansas Democrats, who hope to draw votes away from Republican candidate Derek Schmidt and improve Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s re-election chances. (Pyle has called Schmidt insufficiently conservative and called the major-party candidates “two peas in a pod”.)
The only recent poll on the race, a survey of Schmidt’s allies, found that Pyle took just 2%, with Schmidt beating Kelly 48-45, but it has not yet been reported whether Democrats will name Pyle. Planning to spend money to increase recognition.
● MI-08: Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee and Republican challenger Paul Jung have released a series of back-and-forth ads touching on Jung’s ties to Michigan and his long absence from the state.
The most recent location comes from Kildy, who notes that Jung spent 40 years out of state, 30 in California. Kildee alleges that Janje only moved back to Michigan before a bid for a Detroit-area House seat in 2020, when Democratic Rep. Elissa lost to Slotkin. Now Junge is running in a different district in an entirely different part of the state — Flint and the Tri-Cities area — where he’s never lived.
Kildee’s spot is the answer to wild advertising yourself Central was responding to similar early attacks from Kildee about Jung’s ties to Michigan. In that ad, Jung argued that Kildee was trying to distract from inflation, saying he was born in Michigan and claiming his family “moved around a lot” because his parents were stationed on military bases. used to work on He says he moved to Washington to work for the Department of Homeland Security and then to California to be near his dying father.
as the The Detroit News Note, Jung was born in Michigan in 1966 and lived there until 1974, when his parents moved to California for work. He spent most of his adult life in the Golden State before receiving a graduate degree from the University of Michigan in 2008. However, Jung then went back to California for work once again, after which it was not until 2018 that he most recently worked in DC. That he returned to California to care for his father.
● NY-10: Haaretz Reports that the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC admitted shortly after the New York primary that it had given “significant support” to a mystery group that dropped $395,000 just before the Democratic primary in New York’s open 10th Congressional District.
That organization, New York Progressive PAC, ran digital ads and mailers attacking Assemblywoman Yuh-Lyin Niu’s opposition to low-income housing development and claiming she “supports the anti-Semitic BDS agenda.” In July, Neo said she supports BDS, a movement that seeks to pressure the state of Israel through boycotts, divestment and sanctions, but she recently tried to distance herself from the effort. saying, “I do not agree with all. Its demands nor do I embrace all its tactics.” Neo lost the primary to attorney Daniel Goldman by a 26-24 margin.
AIPAC, which also supports many Republicans who voted against certifying Joe Biden’s victory, has been one of the top outside spenders nationally in Democratic primaries this cycle. However, its previous interventions have all come through its United Democracy Project, making it notable that the organization tried to hide its involvement in the race until after all the votes had been cast.
● VA-07: Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is putting $289,000 behind her first general election ad, a spot attacking Republican Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega on abortion. Commercial explosion to cheer on the overthrow of the ruling party Roe v. WadeFalsely suggesting that women cannot get pregnant from rape, and supporting a national abortion ban with no exceptions.
● DCCC: The DCCC on Friday announced the second round of fall TV ad reservations totaling $24 million in 22 different media markets. The most important new market the committee is investing in is Eugene, Oregon, which overlaps heavily with the state’s redrawn 4th District. There, Democrat Val Hoyle is facing off against Republican Alec Skarlatos for an open seat that Democrats blued several points in redistricting: While the previous version went for Biden by a 51-47 margin, the new iteration would have supported the President by one. Big 55-42 margin.
This latest set of bookings brings D-Trip’s total reserved airtime to just shy of $46 million. You can find all new committee reservations, as well as the House Majority PAC, NRCC, and Congressional Leadership Fund in full, with our constantly updated tracker.
Secretary of State
● MA-SoS: Ahead of the Sept. 6 Democratic primary, MassINC conducted a poll of liberal group Preferences for Progress that pitted longtime Secretary of State Bill Galvin against Boston NAACP President Tanisha Sullivan (Galvin previously led 52-15 in June ) ahead of 53-20. . These results are from GOP firm Advantage, Inc. are similar to a poll released a few days earlier that gave Galvin a slightly larger 55-14 lead. Meanwhile on Friday, Emily’s List endorsed Sullivan.
● MI belt: A new Michigan poll from EPIC-MRA has good news for Democrats and progressives on all fronts. Most notably, it shows that voters overwhelmingly support a measure to amend the state constitution to ensure the right to abortion, with 67% in favor and only 24% opposed. This appears to be the first poll on the amendment, which the state Bureau of Elections had just recommended appear on the November ballot. A separate body called the Board of State Canvassers will issue a final decision on August 31.
The survey shows Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leading Republican Tudor Dixon 50-39, while State Attorney General Dana Nessel leads Republican Matthew DePerno 44-39 and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Christina Karamo 44-38.
● Mayor of Los Angeles, CA: A poll co-sponsored by UC Berkeley Los Angeles Times In the November mayoral general election, Democratic Rep. Karen Bass leads billionaire developer Rick Caruso 43-31, with 24% undecided. That advantage is slightly larger than Bass’ 43-36 plurality in June’s top-two primary, where two other progressive candidates also combined for about 15%.