CNN (from May):
Student loan forgiveness divides Americans more by party and age than by education
Americans’ attitude toward Student loan relief Divided sharply along partisan and generational lines, polling shows — there is little gap between those with a college degree and those without.
After the end of Roe, women increased in signing up to vote in some states
In the first few months of this year, more than half of Kansans who registered to vote were male.
That changed after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
In the week after the court’s decision, more than 70 percent of newly registered voters in Kansas were women, according to an analysis of the state’s registered voter list. An unusually high level of new female registrants persisted until the Kansas primary this month, when a strong Democratic turnout helped. Defeat a referendum That would effectively end abortion rights in the state.
According to an Upshot analysis of 10 states with available voter registration data, the Kansas figures are the clearest example of a broad increase in registration among women since the Dobbs decision. On average in the month after Dobbs, 55 percent of newly registered voters in those states were women, according to the analysis, down from just under 50 percent before the ruling was leaked in early May.
Stop improving things now! Everyone has to suffer like me!
Sometimes I wake up beating the middle of the night because I have had another dream, a dream in which someone else is being spared a small hint of the suffering I endured. The world couldn’t be better! May the world perish with me and perish with me.
Every time someone’s life improves, I am personally humbled. Every time someone devises a labor-saving device, or passes some kind of weak, soft-hearted law that forecloses the opportunity for a new generation of children to lose fingers in dangerous machinery, I grind my teeth. It is an insult to everyone who fought so hard. To avoid offending them, we must keep everything as bad as before. Put those fingers back into the machines, or our suffering will be in vain.
Nate Cohn/NY Times:
The growing evidence against the Republican movement
Since the fallout of Roe v. Wade, the once-obvious signs of a GOP gain are becoming harder to see.
In the 15 primaries since the court’s ruling, 52.5 percent of primary voters have cast Republican primary ballots, compared to 48 percent in the same states in 2018. Data compiled By pollster John Couvillon. The last midterm is used as a point of comparison because of the one-party presidential primaries in 2020.
Of course, 2018 was a good year for Democrats. In the end, he won 54 percent of the major party vote and easily carried the House. So they have room to do a little worse than they did in 2018 and still put in a respectable performance. In fact, a 4.5-point shift from 2018 would result in a very close House National vote, maybe a slight Republican edge depending on how one views the uncontested races.
And that 4.5-point Republican overperformance is slightly worse than at the start of the year for Republicans. Before Roe, Republicans were doing 6.7 points better than the 2018 primaries in the same states. It’s hard to read much into this shift — the primaries, again, are very idiosyncratic, with different races competing and qualifying rules varying widely. But the change, however unreliable, is still consistent with the broader national story.
We just saw an amazing special election result. What could this mean for November?
It’s a long way until November, but the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion is already fueling the general midterm dynamic.
Ryan made abortion rights almost the primary focus of his campaign, using the Dobbs decision to paint Republicans as bigots and tie it to broader themes of freedom.
“How can we be a free country if the government tries to control women’s bodies?” He said A 30-second ad Reflecting on his background as a West Point graduate and his service in Iraq. “This is not the country I fought to protect.”
Ryan also emphasized the importance of making a statement to the nation, telling the Washington Post Dave Weigel That “this should be a national referendum on Roe. This is our first opportunity to send a message, that the country will not tolerate this violation of our fundamental rights.
Message has been sent. But it’s still August. The future of abortion rights in many states — and maybe across the country — will depend on what happens in the midterm elections.
What, if anything, do these particular election results tell us about this?
It is impossible to be sure. But based on conversations with half a dozen pollsters and analysts, here are some possibilities.
A surprise win for Democrats signals a big shift for 2022
I asked Ryan whether the Democratic Party should fully argue that codifying abortion rights into federal law is necessary to elect Democrats. He said that, suggesting that Democrats should join the “fight for freedom on multiple fronts,” under an umbrella argument that Republicans would make us “less safe” and “less free.”
Ryan suggested that Democrats should also try to reclaim the idea of patriotism. “Patriotism to me means, when the rights of your fellow Americans are being taken away, you stand up and fight, not only for yourself, but for them as well.”
Energy was critical in democracies. Two heavily Democratic-leaning counties — Ulster and Dutchess — accounted for 42 percent of the total vote in the district in Tuesday’s election, up from 36 percent in 2020. As NBC’s Steve Kornacki notes, Democrats have “squeezed huge numbers of votes out of core Democratic precincts,” demonstrating “energy” and “enthusiasm.”
Importantly, Ryan said, voters’ “gut reaction” isn’t just about abortion. While he said inflation and economic pain continue to weigh heavily, he also addressed voter anger about gun violence, ongoing threats to democracy and an attempted insurgency fueled by Donald Trump.
Trump revives impeachment playbook in fight over documents. This is now a risky bet
The strategy is similar to how Trump handled the two investigations that led to his impeachment twice. While Trump was able to count on the support of Republicans in the Senate to ensure his acquittal during his impeachment trial, he faces no such protection in the current investigation. The legal system has ways of punishing misrepresentation and lying. Actions Who have often brought Trump reward In the political the arena And as each new fact is made public on the court docket, Trump may be putting himself in deeper legal jeopardy.