This year’s unlucky herds are:
- GA-07: Carolyn Bordo (D)
- IL-06: Mary Newman (D)
- IL-15: Rodney Davis (R)
- MI-03: Peter Major (R)
- MI-11: Andy Levin (D)
- MS-04: Steven Palazzo (R)
- NC-11: Madison Cawthorne (R)
- NY-10: Mondair Jones (D)
- NY-12: Carolyn Maloney (D)
- Or-05: Kurt Schrader (D)
- SC-07: Tom Rice (R)
- WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beitler (R)
- WV-02: David McKinley (R)
- WY-AL: Liz Cheney (R)
However, this list, as large as it is, will almost certainly not grow as a result of the rest of this year’s primaries. That’s because no member of the all-Democratic House delegation in Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island has any primary opposition.
The only other state that has yet to hold an election is Louisiana, which has its own all-party primary on November 8. The one member of the six-person delegation that faces any significant cross-party opposition is Republican Rep. Clay Higgins, whose chief rival in the 3rd District is state attorney Holden Hoggett. It would still be a surprise, however, if Higgins fails to get the majority he needs to win outright, and it’s even more unlikely that the congressman would fail to advance in the runoff, if any. .
Although the cycle’s 14-member death rate is the highest of the 21st century, it is still far below the 19 that fell in 1992. That year, like 2022, many maps changed dramatically during redistricting, especially since majority black and Hispanic seats nearly doubled due to amendments to the Voting Rights Act a decade ago.
Several members of the House also struggled after the House became embroiled in a banking scandal, while a general anti-incumbency atmosphere put more at risk. Not coincidentally, 1992 was the year Ross Perot won nearly 20% of the vote as an independent presidential candidate, a figure no unaffiliated contender has come close to matching since.
In all, 14 House Democrats and five Republicans lost nominations that year, with four falling to fellow incumbents, according to Bloomberg’s Greg Giroux. However, continuing voter anger at the status quo helped Republicans to their first House majority in 40 years under Newt Gingrich, each party’s base on its representatives. Disappointment didn’t quite pan out: only four House members were temporary. The 1994 primary election, while each of the next three elections saw fewer tosses.
The two redistricting cycles that followed were also their respective decade high-water marks for current primary defeats: Eight members fell in 2002, while another 13 went down in 2012. But the 2020 election has well illustrated the height of base anger in the 21st century. Century because redistribution was not A factor that year, so any losing members were rejected by the same electorate that recently sent them to D.C. Eight House members (five Republicans and three Democrats) lost nominations to non-incumbents that cycle. Gives, equal to this year.
Things will likely calm down in 2024 as members get a chance to get to know their new constituencies, though mid-decade redistricting will take place in North Carolina and possibly several other states. It is also not stated what kind of votes or events may be triggered Especially volatile GOP voters.
Still, even a fairly quiet year can result in some high-profile upsets. In 2014, for example, only four House members lost renominations—but one of them was Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
● The end of cry has returned the issue of abortion to the states, and that means few elections are more important than elections for the state legislature. On this week’s episode of The Downbelt, we’re joined Aaron Kleinman, director of research for the Status Project, which works to flip targeted legislatures across the country. Aaron reaches back to the infamous “Powell Memo” to explain why legislative power is so important; discusses how Pennsylvania’s unusually high incumbency re-election rate hampers Democrats; stakes for Democrats trying to prevent Republicans from gaining a supermajority in North Carolina; and much more.
Co-hosts David Neer and David Beard also recap this week’s election, starting with a huge upset in New York’s 19th — a race Republicans are expected to win handily. There were also two huge Democratic primaries for neighboring House seats in New York City that were ultimately resolved, as well as a win by the worst MAGA candidate in a district near Orlando. And we update the running vote count in Alaska, where a Democrat is in surprise contention for the state’s only House seat.
Please subscribe to Downbelt on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You’ll find a transcript of this week’s episode here by noon Eastern time.
● FL-Sen: Republican incumbent Marco Rubio has launched a $1.3 million campaign for the general election that once again claims that Democratic Rep. Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief, praised the “police rescue” and called the “violent riots ‘beautiful.’
The first allegation turns on the congresswoman’s comments in 2020 when she did not come out for or against the Minneapolis City Council’s proposal to disband its police force: Demings said instead that she believed it would “make Minneapolis safer.” will come up with a plan to keep but also bring the community and the police together in a much-needed and long-overdue way.” Demings himself has used his own ads to call the idea of suspending the police “just crazy.”
Rubio’s second attack follows Demings’ comments in 2017 when he called student protests against the Trump administration’s Muslim ban at UC Berkeley “a beautiful thing.” Fox 13 reported in July that, while there were other protests at the university that turned violent that year, there’s no indication the congresswoman ever said anything favorable about them.
● oh-sen: Democrat Tim Ryan’s latest commercial against JD Vance accuses the Republican of making the state’s opioid crisis worse by using his nonprofit to bring “a big pharma-funded mouthpiece to Ohio.” , who “called Oxy a ‘godsend’.”
The ad cited a recent Associated Press report detailing how Vance’s now-defunct organization brought in an addiction specialist named Sally Settle: Settle, the story says, was funded by Purdue Pharma. Studies cited by Govt., the maker of OxyContin, also showed officials drafted his opinion pieces. Settle responded by saying that he “never consulted” or ever “took a cent from Purdue”.
Vance’s team also insisted that the candidate was not aware of Satelle’s ties to Purdue “but that she is proud of her work to treat patients, especially in an area of Ohio that has had all of its was more than needed.”
● AK-AL: Election officials on Tuesday produced an additional 25,000 ballots from the Aug. 16 snap-runoff general election, but we’ll still have to wait until the end of the month to find out if late GOP Rep. Who won Don Young’s race to success?
With 175,000 votes cast, which the Associated Press estimates represent 90% of the total, former Democratic state Rep. Mary Peltola leads with 39% as two Republicans, former reality TV show star Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich III. , are at 31%. and 28% respectively. Paltola’s total before this latest batch was 38%, while Palin and Begich were at 32% and 29%.
Last frontier allows counting of mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day if they are received by the end of the month: State election officials say they will have final numbers on Aug. 31, with further updates Friday. After planning the results done. With all votes tabulated, officials will conduct an immediate run-off to redistribute votes to the two remaining third-place candidates.
All three candidates will face off again in the November race for a full term, but former state Interior Department official Tara Sweeney will ultimately not be among them. While the Republican appeared to have done well enough to advance in last week’s top four primaries, she said Tuesday evening that she was dropping out after taking just 4% of the vote. Since Sweeney’s departure is 64 days before the general election, his seat will instead go to the fifth-place candidate: currently Libertarian Chris Bye, who currently has 0.6%.
● NY-10: Political observers had already speculated before Tuesday’s Democratic primary that Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niu could run as the Working Families Party’s candidate in the general election, after her 26-24 loss to WFP attorney Dan Goldman. Not rejecting the idea. In its place, the spokesperson of the party exclusively told Ben Max of Gotham Gazette, “Haven’t made a decision on that yet.” Niu himself doesn’t seem to have said anything about continuing his campaign that Biden would have taken 85-15.
● Pol: Each party has issued House Internal:
- AZ-06: GQR (D) for Kirsten Engel: Kirsten Engel (D): 49, Juan Ciscomani (R): 47
- WI-03: the signal (R) For Congressional Leadership Fund: Derrick Van Orden (R): 50, Brad Pfaff (D): 38
These are the first polls we’ve seen examining each matchup. Biden would have taken the 6th place of southeastern Arizona 49.3-49.2, while Trump would have taken the southwestern Wisconsin-based 51-47 for third.
● Suffolk County, MA District Attorney: The The Boston Globe Boston City Councilor Ricardo Arroyo was investigated twice for sexual assault while in high school in 2005 and 2007, but was not charged in either case, it was reported Tuesday.
Arroyo, who is challenging incumbent District Attorney Kevin Hayden in the Sept. 6 Democratic primary, responded by saying he only learned of the investigations when the paper contacted him, and that “I never did not do what is alleged, then or ever.” However, the the globe writes that police reports say a detective spoke with both Arroyo and his attorney in 2005 even though the candidate said, “I know I’m going to remember this.”
The paper also contacted the female accuser in 2007, who was not named in the article. After initially writing to a reporter, “I have nothing to do with Ricardo Arroyo and I want nothing to do with Ricardo Arroyo since I was a minor. [sic] Thank you,” he said later, as the councilor contacted him after speaking with him the globe. He later informed the paper, “For purposes of clarity. Ricardo Arroyo never assaulted me. I don’t know who did or what happened.”
Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, who endorsed Arroyo months ago, responded to the report on Wednesday by saying she would “see how this story develops” before deciding whether to maintain her support. Former Rep. Joe Kennedy III, President of the Boston City Council Ed FlynnAnd Iron Workers Local 7However, each announced that day that they were withdrawing their support.
● Montgomery County, MD Executive: County officials have completed their recount of the July 19 Democratic primary, and incumbent Mark Elrich defeated self-funding businessman David Blair by a margin of 39.2-39.18 – 32 votes. Blair, who lost to Elrich by 77 votes four years ago, conceded Wednesday. Despite his extremely close call, Elrich should have no trouble in November in a dark blue suburban D.C. county that hasn’t elected a Republican executive since the 1970s.
Blair, who spent nearly $5 million on his second campaign, argued that Elrich had done a poor job of making the county more affordable or tackling crime; The challenger also benefited from $900,000 in spending by a super PAC funded by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskowitz as well as developers and business groups. Bethesda Magazine Elrich, whose “political base in civic and neighborhood groups often made him an outsider in three terms on the County Council on planning and development issues,” also clashed repeatedly with business groups, wrote last month.
Incumbent, for his part, focused on his work during the pandemic, accusing Blair and county council member Hans Reimer, who finished third with 20%, of supporting policies that were “very Koch brothers. . [and] Reaganesque – as in let the private sector solve everything.
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