Three states are holding primary elections tonight. Oklahoma voters already went to the polls on June 28, but the state is now hosting a runoff in a primary where no one won a majority. Statewide races, primaries for the state legislature and local office were also held that day in New York, but because the courts redrew the maps for the U.S. House and state Senate, those nomination contests are now taking place. The Empire State will also hold special elections in the 19th and 23rd congressional districts.
main race: Glimpse | Cheat-sheet ♦ results: FL | NY | ok
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:32:44 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
As our Primary Night Live coverage moves to midnight on the East Coast, all eyes are now on the special election.NY-19. Many pundits predicted a Republican win here, given the relative lack of spending on the Democratic side (Dems may be leaning toward pragmatism: both candidates are prohibitive favorites in various districts come November) and the GOP’s And a well-known name favors former Dutchess County Executive Mark Molinaro, who ran for governor in 2018. Two polls, one by the DCCC and one by the left-leaning Data for Progress, both showed Molinaro leading Democrat Pat Ryan (county executive in Ulster County).
So, where are we?
- With nearly 90% of the vote counted, in a slight upset, Democrat Pat Ryan has a 52-48 lead, a raw vote of about 4100 votes.
- However: Many counties still appear to be counting Election Day votes, which have strongly favored Republicans. In particular, Otsego County is sitting on an estimated 6000-7000 votes that will almost certainly tilt to Molinaro.
- But: Two key Democratic districts are out, Columbia County and Ulster County are first and third in turnout for the 2018 general election (Molinaro’s Dutchess County is second).
- Also: County boards of elections still have an undetermined number of late-arriving mail ballots, and they should favor Ryan.
So what does it all mean? That means it’s likely to be pretty close when all is said and done. And, in a Biden +2 district, to avoid previous primary/special election coverage, it wouldn’t be happening in a “red wave” environment.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:37:09 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-19 Special:GOP hopes have taken a minor hit. Those votes (or at least a large percentage of them) came in on Election Day, and they only got Mark Molinaro about 850 votes (this round of votes totaled about 8200 votes). Thus, Democrat Pat Ryan leads 51-49 overall with a raw vote lead of just under 3300 votes.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:39:58 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-23 Special:Here’s a (small) consolation for the Red Team. Republican Joseph Sempolinski leads Democrat Max Della Pia by a 53-47 margin. That’s small consolation, since the district supported Trump by a 55-43 margin in 2020.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:47:06 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-19 Special:ABC, NBC, and CBS have called the election for Democrat Pat Ryan. On paper, some would dismiss this as a Democrat in a seat held by a Democratic congressman (now-LG Antonio Delgado). But don’t let them fool you. It’s a definite blow to the GOP, which threw a lot of money into the race, and does serious violence to the perception that Democrats are underdogs this year in districts with weak Biden leads (it was a Biden +2 district). And I’ll say it again for the 59th time to feel it: “red wave” years don’t usually look like this in the run-up to an election. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. But a party that supposedly has all the momentum doesn’t often cough up such winnable runs.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:55:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-23 (R):In the new (and heavily Republican) 23rd District left open by the retirement of Rep. Chris Jacobs, it looks like Carl Palladino’s attempt at a political second act may be on the wane. State Party Chairman Nick Langworthy has now pulled ahead of Palladino (who led most of the night) and holds a 52-48 lead over Palladino (a raw vote edge of about 2000 votes).
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 3:59:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-23 Special:Small consolation for Republicans, but the AP has placed a call for Rep. Joe Sempolinski, who will serve the remainder of the term of Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned earlier in the year. Like NY-19, however, the margin is the same or lower than the 2020 presidential result. Sampolinski currently leads Trump’s district by six points, 55-43.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 4:02:18 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-24 (R):NY-19 missed it in the hullabaloo, but the AP reported that incumbent Rep. The primary was called for Claudia Tenney, who defeated Mario Fratto by a stunning margin of 54-40.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 4:11:55 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-19 Special:And there it is. The AP calls this special election for Democrat Pat Ryan. The GOP will spin the status quo tonight, with a 1-1 split. But, again, they spent money on this race with their best potential candidate. And they lost. What’s more: This district (at Biden +2) is actuallyNoFavorable for the GOP as NY-19 is that Molinaro will try to win in November (which is Biden +4). Ryan, meanwhile, will be at least a slight favorite in the new NY-18, which is 53-45 Biden. A minor upset (only two publicly released polls had Molinaro ahead), and a significant boost to Democrats as they head into November.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 4:15:32 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
NY-03 (D):Others have no doubt rattled off every Bob Dylan reference available, but the AP actually called this Long Island district for DNC member Robert Zimmerman. Zimmerman will be a slight betting favorite to hold NY-03, which was left open by Tom Suzy’s spectacular bid for governor. He faces Robert Santos, who lost to Suozzi by double digits in 2020 in a marginally more Democratic district (the NY-03 redistricting moved nearly three points in the GOP direction).
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 4:24:50 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
So, we have three races we’re tracking tonight that have yet to be called by the AP:
- NY-10 (D):It was effectively an open seat in which Rep. Mondair Jones in a running mate Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick ran rather than tackle Maloney which might have favored Maloney. Jones’ gamble, alas, was all for naught, as he finished a distant third with 18% of the vote. The current leader is Daniel Goldman, Trump’s impeachment lawyer, with 26% of the vote. State assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niu is second with 24%, about 1300 votes behind in the raw vote. Late mail votes will almost certainly decide it.
- NY-22 (D):With 2020 candidate Frances Connolly leading fellow military veteran Sarah Hood by nearly four points (currently 40-36), it’s a narrower lead. The raw vote margin is just under 1100 votes and the total vote tally is still small, no doubt fueling AP’s reluctance to call it.
- NY-23 (R):This one, unlike the first two, feels like it’s done and just waiting for AP to call that dead guy truly dead and gone. State party chair Nick Langworthy has a 52-48 lead over businessman Carl Palladino, who was last seen running a losing campaign for governor a dozen years ago. The raw vote margin is 2000 votes, and with nearly 50,000 votes in the can, it’s very hard to see where Palladino pulls back.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022 · 4:30:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser
With that update, and the assumption that the two Democratic races are unlikely to be called tonight, we’ll call it a night here in the DK elections. We have one more primary night left to share together: on September 13, when voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island have their say. After that, it’s on to November! Thanks for running on a deeply interesting night for election fans. And please check back tomorrow for more updates and analysis on all of tonight’s headlines. Have a good night!