Conventional wisdom says that the party that holds the White House faces a midterm deficit. When the election is framed as a referendum on the sitting president, it’s hard to get ahead, in a political system that guarantees that any president can get his agenda through Congress unimpeded. .
With Democratic President Joe Biden’s endorsements in the 30s and Republicans ahead in general congressional ballot polling, it may have looked like Republicans were headed for another 2010-style victory. Yet if you were paying attention, and I mean it as a matter of fact Mind you, fate was more complicated than that.
How can you hold a referendum on the current president, when the old one won’t go? No one inspires the progressive base like Donald Trump. (All the crime-ing is just a bonus.)
But more importantly, we knew that the Supreme Court would be axed Roe v. Wade. Chief Justice John Roberts had his way and only half killed it, Perhaps things are still looking up for Republicans. But the conservative wing of the High Court became completely reactionary DobbsAnd the result was a catastrophic loss of rights.
The party in the White House also does poorly in the midterms because its supporters are either inactive (“We won! Wake me up in four years…”) or frustrated and disillusioned by the lack of legislative progress. Meanwhile, the opposition party has been sacked – little more inspiring than being deprived of it.
Republicans still feel that way, sure, but because of the Supreme Court’s overreach, so do Democrats. No one wants to lose their rights, and the conservative Supreme Court asserts itself as the highest authority in the land. The Democrats may have the White House, but we are functionally in the minority.
as a result of Dobbs, the entire electoral landscape has changed. Here are the surprising numbers:
In the 2021 election, Republicans outperformed their 2020 numbers by an average of six points. Remember how we lost in Virginia, and almost lost in New Jersey. Things were looking rough, for sure.
Things got even worse in early 2022, when Republicans were outperforming their 2020 margins. nine points They were “cisgendered male pundits and moderators”. something Evidence supporting that a red tide was in the cards, even if they couldn’t figure out how Trump and abortion would affect the election.
after the Dobbs The decision was initially leaked, by last night there had been 11 special elections, and the Republican advantage was suddenly exposed. Suddenly, practically overnight, Democrats Exceeding their 2020 margin by three points—A huge 12-point shift.
And since Dobbs Was the decision officially released?
As I put this story to bed late Tuesday night, the margin in NY-19 has increased to D+3.8. The averages are all out, and Democrats are now outpacing Biden’s 2020 margin by an impressive average of 5.8 points. Dobbs. Three weeks ago I wrote here about the impact of abortion on campaigns, and if anything, the impact is accelerating.
Writing about the Minnesota special election, David Neer said, “It is […] It’s hard to reconcile this result with a political climate that’s as harsh for Democrats as the typical midterm pattern — plagued by high inflation and low presidential approval ratings — would suggest.” Still, David was cautious, and gave us a better read on the climate in NY-19. Told to wait for special election:
The most telling of these will be the race for New York’s 19th district, where Democrat Pat Ryan has put abortion front and center and called his run on the issue “Janata Sanmat.” The DCCC just joined the fray, A new ad is being aired jointly Along with Ryan attacking his GOP opponent, Mark Molinaro said “Oppose[s] A woman’s right to choose” and warned that Republicans in Congress would “vote for a nationwide abortion ban.”
So far, Republicans have put more muscle into the effort, however, with about $715,000 in outside spending, mostly from the NRCC. Democrats have yet to engage in similar (coordinated spending like the DCCC are limited to only $55,000). But unlike the 1st districts in Nebraska and Minnesota, New York’s 19th is a Democratic-leaning seat that voted less than half a point for Biden. If Democrats can move the needle like they have elsewhere, they’ll be able to hang on to this seat and deny Republicans a chance at a pickup. And if nothing else, we should learn a lot about it Dobbs May mean for November.
Conventional wisdom was that Republican Marcus Molinaro would probably win easily. While it was a Democratic-leaning seat, it was only a 50-48 Biden seat — the kind of territory Republicans need to pick up if they want to retake the House. If this was a typical medieval setting, it wouldn’t be close. A DCCC poll last week had Republicans ahead by three, 46-43. Democratic pollster data for progress (stupidly?) Tuesday morning released a poll Giving to Molinaro Eight-point Lead, 53-45.
None of this was surprising. Molinaro wasn’t some random Q-loving nut. He was actually the best Republican House recruit in the entire country. He ran for governor in 2018. And while Andrew Cuomo stomped him statewide, 60-36, Molinaro Actually won this district. It had to be his people, and especially in this “red wave environment”. Instead, the Democratic victory gave them the biggest evangelistic shock of the entire cycle.
Political observers and analysts are all taking notice. This tweet came earlier in the evening, but the potential margin is worth noting:
Plus-three was the margin in that DCCC poll, so that might be where his baseline came from. But whatever the details, the feeling was universal. Here’s a top partisan conservative hack:
And another Republican:
Amy Walter is editor-in-chief of the respected Cook Political Report:
Here is some good math:
(Remember, Democrats need 217 for a majority.)
Meanwhile, the strength of the electorate is leading our way. Voter registration numbers are just noise in all Maidan-e-Jung. Like Pennsylvania:
I’m looking at those under-25 numbers! How about Ohio?
Just go down Tom Bonniertimeline of It’s like state after state in the competition arena.
And one final smile to cap it off: