New York’s latest primary was rather abrupt, after state courts determined that Albany lawmakers lacked the authority to draw new maps for Congress and the state Senate. As a result, the courts ordered that separate primaries be held at the end of June for statewide races, state legislature and local offices with contests held on their regularly scheduled dates but races for the US House and state Senate. Delayed until late. August
That leaves us with summertime primaries that are sure to have low participation, with many voters on vacation and no statewide contests to boost turnout. The House primaries will also be on a playing field that was greatly muddled when a Republican judge in upstate New York replaced a court-drawn map passed by Democratic legislators.
That switch brought many major changes, including the creation of a district in Manhattan that connected the Upper East Side and the Upper West Side. For the first time in over a century. It drew two 30-year Democratic veterans in New York City, Rep. It also prompted a bitter clash between Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, both powerful committee chairs. In turn, that leads to a hotly contested open-seat race in lower Manhattan, where several high-powered Democrats are looking for some of the ground left behind.
Florida’s map also underwent considerable upheaval, thanks to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who succeeded in pushing a plan of his own over a docile legislature. Consequently, we have many competitive Republican primaries for open seats across the state—around Jacksonville, St. Petersburg, and Orlando, for starters—that were once held by Democrats but have since gone very much to the GOP. Designed to be more user friendly. DeSantis will also find out if his November opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist or State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.
Check out our preview for straight dope on all these races and more, and join us on Tuesday night for our full coverage.
● NV-Sen, NV-GovPolling on behalf of: Reno Gazette-Journal, Suffolk University defeated Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto over Republican Adam Laxalt 45-38, a significant reversal from Laxalt’s 43-40 lead in the school’s previous poll in April. However, Cortez Musto has narrowly led in each of the few polls released by reputable firms since then.
In the governor’s race, Suffolk found Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak by a narrow 43-40 margin over Republican Joe Lombardo, though it was also an improvement for Sisolak in their April poll, where Lombardo led 39-37. Like his Democratic counterpart in the Senate race, Sisolak has been slightly ahead in nearly every poll from a reliable outlet in recent months, though that still only includes a handful of polls despite the highly competitive nature of both races.
● UT-Sen: The hard-line anti-tax Club for Growth is sending cavalry to far-right GOP Sen. Mike Lee, unveiling a $2.5 million ad buy against conservative independent challenger Evan McMullin, who has the support of the state Democratic Party.
As part of that purchase, the club launched a new ad that accuses McMullin of being a Washington insider who made $500,000 in taxpayer money while working for Republicans (when he was a senior staffer for the House GOP). were, before they were sold to the Liberals. for personal gain, claiming he founded a “benevolent” nonprofit organization that then paid his company $600,000. The club is likely referring to McMullin’s Stand Up Republic Foundation (since renamed the Renew America Movement), which mobilized moderate Democrats and pro-democracy conservatives to support centrist candidates against extremists, including Donald Trump. Collected
● Wi-Sen: Republicans have launched two ads that seek to portray Democrat Mandela Barnes as an extremist who threatens public safety. The first, from NRSC, features a clip of Barnes giving the Working Families Party’s response to Trump’s 2019 State of the Union address where he praises progressive Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar. . The ad then connects the four by claiming they want to end cash bail, citing a 2016 bill Barnes sponsored while he was serving in the state legislature.
Second ad, this time NRSC and GOP Sen. From both Ron Johnson, Barnes to Ocasio Cortez, Omar, and Missouri Rep. Corey tries harder to portray Bush as an extremist by linking to the “socialist squad” as the image. appears on the screen. The commercial then plays brief clips of Bush and Omar, respectively, saying “to save the police” and “to put an end to it”.[ing] Minneapolis Police Department” (not mentioning that Omar was sponsoring a failed 2021 ballot measure to replace it with a new Department of Public Safety) before arguing that Barnes would join them. , although this provides no evidence that Barnes himself favors defunding the police.
Evidence referencing this second ad included another reference to opposition to cash bail after Barnes showed a 2018 image of him holding an “Abolish ICE” T-shirt. Barnes has since said, “I’m not part of the Abolish ICE movement because no one slogan can capture all the work we’ve done.”
● NRSC: After shocking news that the NRSC cut at least $13 million from TV ad reservations for Senate races in key battlegrounds, The Washington PostIsaac Arnsdorff reported on the sorry finances that forced the committee to make these cuts. You’ll enjoy plenty of anonymous quotes from Republican operatives defending the NRSC and its leader, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, but the biggest news came a day after the article first appeared on Friday.
On Saturday, the committee was required to file its monthly fundraising report with the FEC, which disclosed this It had only $23 million At the end of July. In contrast, DSCC ended the month with $54 million in the bank. Of course, that deficit doesn’t take into account the huge sums coming from dark money groups, where the GOP may still have an advantage: Its top Senate super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, had $105 million in its coffers as of June. was 30, for example, while its Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, had $66 million. (SMP, which files monthly reports, reported $73 million in cash as of July 31; SLF files only quarterly.)
Still, for a party that started all the way round but is certain to easily win the single seat it needs to secure a majority, it’s a humbling situation. And while the party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in the House in midterm years, it notes that the same pattern holds true much less often in the Senate, which causes certain seats to increase each year. In fact, the most recent midterms are a valuable case in point: Even as Democrats flipped 41 House seats in 2018, Republicans won two in the Senate.
● FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls released its final poll of the Democratic primary for governor on Tuesday, and it has Rep. Nikki Fried over state Agriculture Commissioner. Charlie found Chris with a huge 59-30 lead, similar to Chris’ 56-24 advantage in St. Pete. Pete’s old poll from early August. Crist has led by varying margins in nearly every poll this year, though St. Pete has long been more bullish on Crist than any other pollster.
Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary, however, will start with a huge financial deficit against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who had more than $132 million in his war chest after the fundraising period ended Aug. 18. By contrast, both Democrats are largely exhausted. Their more modest fundraising haul left Fried with only $1.5 million on hand and just $393,000 in the bank.
● CA-09: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is airing his first bicycle ad, with the candidate standing in his garden showing his family’s roots in local agriculture and his support for local water rights. Harder says “hell no” to sending more Central Valley water to Los Angeles and points to his work fighting Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recently unveiled “Delta Tunnel Project,” which is not mentioned. is, while Harder highlighted his work. Both parties “to build the valley’s first water storage project in 50 years.”
● FL-10: Gun safety activist Maxell Alejandro Frost is leading state Sen. Randolph Bracy 34-18 for the Democratic nomination in Florida’s open 10th District, former Rep. Alan Grayson with 14% and former Rep. Corinne Brown at 6%; All others were in the low single digits and 15% were uncertain.
● FL-14: A state appeals court ruled Friday that the Florida Democratic Party and two electors lacked standing to challenge self-funding businessman Jerry Torres’ presence on Tuesday’s Republican primary ballot. The ruling overturns a lower court ruling, which an appeals court had already blocked on Torres’ appeal, that found him ineligible because he was in Africa when a Mississippi notary claimed he ran for office. was physically present at the time of signing the candidate’s oath required for filing. . The plaintiffs have not yet said whether they will appeal the latest ruling.
Torres previously held Democratic Rep. in Tampa and St. Petersburg in this 59-40 Biden seat. Kathy has vowed to self-fund up to $15 million for her high-profile campaign against Custer.
● IN-02: Republican leaders in Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District held a gathering Saturday to put the late Rep. Picked businessman Rudy Yakim to replace Jackie Walorski, choosing him over other options in the first round of voting. The state GOP chair did not say how many votes Yakim won, but she was nominated by acclamation for a concurrent special election for the final two months of Walorski’s term.
Yakim served as Walorski’s finance director a decade ago and also received an endorsement from the congresswoman’s husband, Dean Swihart. He will now be the heavy favorite against Democrat Paul Sturry in this conservative district in north-central Indiana, which has changed little in redistricting.
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad purchases and may be larger.