Fleming showed McKee edging Gorbia by a similar 25-23 margin in May as Brown took 7%, though Foulkes has since doubled his 6% share. However, we have seen only two polls during the intervening period. A survey of Suffolk University in late June gave Gorbia A 24-20 advantage over the incumbent, who was elevated from lieutenant governor last year when Gina Raimondo resigned to become U.S. secretary of commerce, with Foulkes at 16%. The secretary of state released an internal in late July from Lake Research Partners that put her ahead of McKee 27-22, while Foulkes was similarly situated at 14%.
While all of these surveys agree that competition is tight, none have yet aired a negative TV ad. Just before this newest poll was published, Gorbia came out with a new commercial that emphasizes her support for abortion rights but doesn’t mention any of her opponents. Brown, meanwhile, WPRI. According to the report of Ted Nessi is spending There is an initial purchase of $50,000 Which casts him and state Sen. Cynthia Mendes, who is running for lieutenant governor, as a progressive team. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in separate primaries and general elections, but Brown and Mendes are campaigning as an informal ticket.)
McKee, meanwhile, heads into the final days of the race with a bigger war chest than any of his rivals. We’ve summarized the latest fundraising reports, covering the period from July 1 to August 15, below:
- Foulkes: $270,000 raised, additional $240,000 self-funded, $1 million in expenses, $180,000 in cash
- McKee: $130,000 raised, $730,000 spent, $630,000 cash-on-hand
- Gorbia: $100,000 Raised, $530,000 Expenses, $360,000 Cash
- Brown: $100,000 raised, $80,000 spent, $80,000 cash
While Foulkes doesn’t have much left at the moment, Nessie writes that “last week his campaign indicated plans to spend an additional $1.2 million by the day of the primary,” so he plans to put much of his money into his campaign. can make McKee will also soon receive some outside help from a group called Forward Rhode Island that received a $500,000 contribution from his allies in the labor union. The spots aren’t available yet, but Nessi says the first one is a “positive commercial toting McKee’s record in office.”
The final nominee will take on businesswoman Ashley Callas, who faces no serious opposition in her Republican primary. Kloss, who is self-funding nearly all of her campaign budget, brought in just $10,000 from donors over the past month and a half but spent another $860,000 and had $250,000 left over.
PS If McKee loses next month, he will be only the second Rhode Island governor to fall in a primary. The first was Bruce Sundlan, a fellow Democrat who lost the 1994 primary in a landslide against state Sen. Mirth York after a tenure dominated by the state’s economic struggles. Republican Lincoln Almond went on to defeat York that fall; Ocean State Democrats would not regain the governor’s office until 2013, when independent Lincoln Chaffee switched his party affiliation. Chaffee himself decided not to run again the following year, rather than go through a tough primary against Ramondo.
McKee is also trying to avoid joining the small group of six state governors who have lost their party’s nomination during the 21st century. Two of them, both Republicans, were also running for the first time since ascending to the lieutenant governor’s office: Utah’s Olene Walker failed to advance beyond her party’s 2004 convention, while Kansas’ Jeff Colyer won his 2018 run. He lost by 343 votes. Opponent Kris Kobach endorsed Trump.
● On this week’s episode downbelt podcast, Daily Kos is joining forces with Julia Louis-Dreyfus to endorse a slate of seven candidates running for the state Supreme Court in three key states: Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio. Like us, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the US Supreme Court was overthrown. cryRaces for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.
In a twist, Julia turns the tables downbelt Davids takes over hosting duties to quiz Neer and Beard about the team and these matches. Topics include how odd it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), to what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years ( abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary people can make a difference.
Please subscribe to Downbelt on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can find a transcript of this week’s episode here.
● PA-Sen., PA-Gov: Pittsburgh Works Together, a group that describes itself as a “cooperative of business and labor,” has released a poll of GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies that gives Democrats big leads in both of the Commonwealth’s key statewide contests. Is: John Fetterman beats Republicans. Mehmet Oz 51-33 in the Senate race, while Josh Shapiro holds a 50-35 lead over Doug Mastriano for governor. A late July poll for Fox News from a bipartisan team of pollsters showed Fetterman and Shapiro leading 47-36 and 50-40, respectively.
● WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Marquette University Law School has released its first poll of the Badger State since Wisconsin’s primary election earlier this month, and it shows Democrat Mandela Barnes with a 51-44 lead over Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. Those numbers mark an improvement for Barnes from Marquette’s previous poll in June, which only gave him a 46-44 lead.
In the hotly contested governor’s race, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers posted a narrow 45-43 lead over Republican Tim Michels, while independent Jon Beglinger earned 7%. The firm’s June survey gave Evers a 48-41 lead, but Beglinger was not included in that poll.
Unlike every other top battleground state this cycle, Wisconsin has seen hardly any general election releases from reputable firms this year, while the Democratic nomination for the Senate and Republican primaries periodically Despite holding elections, only Marquette has put its cards on the table. The approval for the governor was still up in the air. Consequently, it’s hard to tell how close a school’s latest results might be, and you should never rely on a single poll to inform your view of a race.
● KS-Gov, KS-Sen: Republican firm Battleground Connect, a poll conducted for the John Brown Freedom Fund, supports Republican Derek Schmidt in the governor’s race, giving his man a 48-45 victory over Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly; Another 2% state sen. Goes to Dennis Pyle, a former Republican who is campaigning as an independent. The poll, the first we’ve seen here in nearly four months, also shows that GOP Sen. Jerry Moran defeated Democrat Mark Holland 58-37 in a contest that has drawn little attention.
● OH-Gov: RGA has launched a new TV ad following Democrat Nan Whaley’s record on tax increases and crime as a former Dayton mayor. The ad is backed by $570,000, on top of the $2.25 million the RGA invested here earlier this spring to help Republican Gov. Mike DeWine win the primary. The Cleveland Plain Dealer Reports state that RGA has received $1.4 million in contributions from “donors who have either received state appointments from DeWine or received state contracts,” which may explain why it is in such a race. joining what most observers see as overwhelmingly supportive of incumbents.
● FL-13: St. Pete polls conducted by Florida Politics show 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna with just a 37-34 lead over attorney Kevin Hazlett ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary; Another 14% goes to Amanda Mackie, who lost the nomination to Luna two years ago. Trump-endorsed Luna has long appeared to be the favorite to advance to the general election for the St. Petersburg seat, but the primary has turned expensive and messy over the past few weeks.
Stand for Florida, a PAC founded in February, has spent more than $2 million on ads promoting Hazlett or going after Luna, while her allies at the Club for Growth have spent as much to unseat Haslett. The same amount has been posted. Luna’s side has emphasized her support of Trump and focused on Hazlett’s 2016 social media posts that criticized the mega leader. Hazlett in turn used an old clip of Luna saying, “I’ve always agreed with President Obama’s immigration policies” and endorsing a “pathway to citizenship.”
● FL-27, VA-07: US Term Limits Two more House polls from RMG Research have been released:
FL-27: MarchiElvira Salazar (R-Inc): 44, Ken Russell (D): 37
VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D-Inc): 46, Yesli Vega (R): 41
The group says each challenger has “signed the US Term Limits Pledge and supports term limits” while the incumbent feels the opposite. Florida Poll state Sen. Not to mention Annette Taddeo, who the DCCC is endorsing in next week’s primary.
● NY-12: Democracy Protection PAC, a group that was formed in May, next week’s Democratic primary attacking Rep. Carolyn Maloney is spending at least $230,000 on a TV ad for her past skepticism about vaccines. “He’s pushed debunked studies linking autism to vaccines,” the narrator says, “and he’s even tried to use $80 million in stimulus money for anti-vaccine research.” The spot, which represents the largest outside spending of the race, does not mention Maloney’s main inner-party foes, fellow incumbent Jerry Nadler or attorney Suraj Patel.
The subject has been used against Maloney before, though this appears to be the first time anyone has aired a TV commercial about it. Patel in his first fight two years ago Insert a web video It costs much of the same that this ad does now.
That year, HuffPost took a look at Maloney’s history, including how he sponsored a 2007 bill that would have banned the use of mercury-based chemicals in vaccines even though numerous studies had already showed that there was no link between vaccines and autism. The following year, Maloney spoke at a “Green Our Vaccines” rally headlined by anti-vaxxer celebrities Jenny McCarthy and Jim Carrey, whom she praised for “all they have done to protect our nation’s children.”
In 2009 Maloney also co-authored a letter to the Department of Health and Human Services asking for $300 million in stimulus funds aimed at purchasing and distributing vaccines for a study comparing autism rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Asked to use some. As recently as 2015, he introduced a bill calling for the National Institutes of Health to conduct this research and “determine whether exposure to vaccines or vaccine components can cause autism spectrum disorders, chronic conditions, or other neurological disorders.” supported a bill for “connected with conditions”.
In 2020, Maloney’s team pushed back on Patel’s criticism by asserting, “The congresswoman’s record as a fierce advocate for science-based policy, universal health care and vaccines, and oversight of the Trump administration’s many abuses speaks for.” Incumbent held off Patel that year, but only 43-39.
However, that campaign narrowly forestalled the issue. Earlier this month, Maloney appeared on a podcast hosted by Gotham Gazette’s Ben Max, who asked her about her past statements suggesting a link to vaccines and autism. “I regret any statement I ever made asking any questions about vaccines,” he said, responding, “There were two bills I co-sponsored that studied them. Sorry for asking to study.”
Maloney also took issue with labeling Nadler’s team “a leading anti-vaccine voice in Congress.” She argued, “There were some questions at the time … now it’s proven that there is no problem, and asking a question 20 years ago – I follow the science.”
● RI-02: WPRI reports that the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund has reserved $350,000 in TV time to help Treasurer Seth Magaziner in next month’s Democratic primary.
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad purchases and may be larger.