Five states are holding primary elections tonight, while Kansas will vote on an amendment to remove the right to abortion from the state constitution. Ohio voters will also go back to the polls for primaries for their state legislature, which were delayed by redistricting litigation (primaries for Buckeye’s other state offices were held as planned in early May).
We will live blog the results here and cover the returns closely as wellon Twitter.
main race:Glimpse | Chhal-chadar
Results: az | KS | MI | MO | oh | WA
Good evening, and welcome to a big primary night of the 2022 cycle. The first part of the night includes big contests in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri, and then western states shout out with primary results from Arizona and Washington state. Gear up for what could be one of the most exciting primary nights of the year!
A few reminders before heading into the evening. We will start reporting results when results are at 10% of the expected total for the night. Now, this can be an imperfect measure – early results can be early votes that a candidate has worked hard to generate, or it can be disproportionately from a particular area or region. So we encourage you not to jump to too many conclusions at night.
MI-11 (D):And we start the night with a teeth-grinding election issue. If you are in the USA If you’re following along with TODAY (or the New York Times), then Rep. Rep. Andy Levine by a margin of 59-41. Shows Haley Stevens winning the member-versus-member primary. But as you can see on the Oakland County website, it’s Stevens who holds the edge. Again, this is early voting, and it’s hard to know if those ballots represent a normal split in the race, or not. We’ve certainly seen races where the walkup vote overwhelmingly favored one candidate (PA-12 comes to mind).
MI-11 (D):Digging a little deeper, we can see how Hayley Stevens has built this mediocre lead. As one might expect, she is doing quite well in the new 11th divisions that her old district is made up of. And, as one might expect, Andy Levin is also doing quite well in the new 11th Ward that made up his old district. So the dividing line, as we sit here in the early evening, is that Haley Stevens is running well ahead of Andy Levin in the parts of the district that will be held after January 2021 (about 1/3 of the new district). has not come in are remnants of the old 14th district).
MI-12 (D):We’ve hit the threshold (right at 10%) in this race, and that’s throwing out a lot of doubters. Rep. Rashida Talib might have been in some trouble if she was sent for a head-to-head match. But with the opposition split in three different directions, she is positively reeling. Taleb sits at 57%, with her nearest competitor (Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey) back at 25%.
Kansas:We’ve finally reached what may be the most important contest of the night: a voter initiative in Kansas that, if passed, would give the legislature the right to regulate abortions however they like. including and up to a total ban.
But these are results that require much more context. Right now: The NO side is up 69-31, which is great news, of course. But two things to consider: 1) it’s almost entirely an early vote, which will undoubtedly benefit the more progressive side of the equation; 2) Bloor counties such as Wyandotte, Douglas, and Riley counties also vote proportionally. So…while the initial return is gratifying, it has many miles to go.
MI-Gov: We’ve passed the 10% reporting mark in the Republican primary in the Michigan gubernatorial contest. Not surprisingly (based on the past few weeks of primary polls), conservative talk radio host Tudor Dixon has a substantial lead. That’s 43%, 20% for businessman Kevin Rinke, 19% for Garrett Soldano, and 15% for insurgent real estate agent Ryan Kelly.
MO-04: I know you’ve all been on the edge of your seats to see who succeeds Republican candidate Vicki Hartzler (who is currently running for Senate) as the Republican candidate in the deep-red 4th District! We’ve reached the threshold, and it’s a three-way race. State Sen. Rick Brattine is leading at 28%, rancher Kalena Bruce at 25%, and former TV newsman Mark Alford at 23%, with 17% predicting reporting.
kansas: We’re up to 22% of projected reporting, and we’ve hit an important benchmark, in that Sedgwick County, the state’s most populous red county and where Wichita is located, has started reporting. The ‘Nos’ (meaning the good guys) are winning there too, 62-38, which brings the statewide total to 65-35 in favor of the ‘Nos’. As before, we would remind everyone to view these results very carefully, however, even though these votes are distributed across many counties, these votes can still be highly dependent on early votes (as we saw C in 2020, favoring Democrats prominently).
Mo-sen: We’ve passed the 10% Republican-leaning reporting mark in the Senate race in Missouri, and it’s a different decision for Donald Trump. One of the Erics he endorsed, Attorney General Eric Schmidt, is on track to win the nomination at 42%. However, the second Eric he supported, former governor. Eric Greitens, third with 19%. That Rep. Separated at 27% by Vicki Hartzler. Remarkably, there is another US representative in the race, Billy Long, who is trailing at 3%. We’re still waiting for the threshold to be hit on the Democratic side before we can talk about whether the summit is likely to be opposed.
MI-03: Some interesting results in Michigan’s 3rd district in the Republican primary, where we just passed the threshold at 11%. It’s a race where various beltway pundits have hurt the Democrats’ efforts to boost Trumpist challenger John Gibbs over moderate incumbent Peter Major. Gibbs actually leads the major 53-47 right now, but the important context is that Gibbs is relying heavily on tiny Ottawa County for that lead (where he’s up 58-41 with 67% reporting ), but Major is winning in much larger Kent County (where Grand Rapids is the major city), up 57-43 with only 5% reporting.
Mo-sen: We’re reporting up to 12% on the Democratic side in the Missouri Senate race (though it looks less like an out-in-left-field pickup opportunity with Eric Schmidt as the GOP nominee rather than Eric Greitens). Bear Baroness Trudy Bush Valentine leads veteran Lucas Kunes 45-35.
MI-Gov: The AP has called the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan for Tudor Dixon, which means millions of ad-watching Michiganders are likely to be familiar with the movie Buddy Bebop vs. The Living Dead in the coming months.
kansas: Johnson County — Kansas’ most populous county, in the suburbs of Kansas City, and the scene of one of the nation’s biggest red-to-blue shifts in the past decade — just lost a big chunk of votes in the abortion vote. , and the vast majority of them were in favor of ‘No’: 72-28 in favor of ‘No’ with a reported 70% of the county voting. This takes us to 45% reporting across the state and increases the overall topline to 66 nos-34 yes. We’ll still continue to advise caution on football-spiking, but it looks like it’s going to be an uphill climb for abortion foes to turn it around with an Election Day vote.
MO-07: The race to replace incumbent Republican Billy Long in deep-red Missouri’s 7th District in the Springfield area has reached the 10% mark. Until now, state Sen. Eric Burlison leads with 36%, state Sen. Jay Wasson on 24 and Pastor Alex Bryant on 19.
MI-08: Also of note, we passed the threshold in the Republican primary in Michigan’s new 8th District (that’s mainly the old Flint-area 5th, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is the incumbent, but it has become more competitive in redistribution. ). Paul Jung, last seen losing to Alyssa Slotkin in the old 8th in 2020, has a huge lead of 55%, with Candice Miller (no, former Rep. Candice Miller, just someone with the same name) holding 23%. is
Liveblog continues here.