Another bonus update, because holy crap things are happening on Earth. In the last 24 hours, I wrote about the strange things happening in Izyum and the blowing up of bridges around Kherson, and Mark followed up on Russia’s suddenly precarious position in that region. Even today the situation has not improved.
To recap, after months of throwing their best Wagner mercenaries into a power plant in Vuhlehirska, Russia finally shut down a Ukrainian major southeast of Bakhmut, in the southeastern Donbass:
It was Russia’s only advance in three weeks. They are like Therefore Pride!
Now let’s see what Ukraine has done. Let’s start around Izyum, where yesterday I was surprised at the confirmation that Russia supported the offensive in the approaches to the twin fortress cities of Slovinsk and Kramatorsk, a key supply river crossing (Studenok and Yaremyvka). had withdrawn his troops from
Today we learned that Russia has not only retreated, but Ukraine has moved its forces up the river at Pasyka, next door to Yeremyvka.
Now, the General Staff never announced the recapture of Pasika. You have to crack the code. We have previously discussed the code of Ukraine:
“The enemy shot down X” or “The enemy fired at our positions in X” means that Ukraine controls X. “The enemy tried to advance in the direction of X” means that all towns behind X are in Russian hands. The Ukrainian General Staff would never actually announce the loss of a town, they would only report new Russian advances beyond that town.
Saying “In the settlement area of Pasika, a spy group tried to expose the positions of our troops” is actually much clearer than their usual declarations. Ukrainian forces are currently in Pasika. Check it out now:
For Russia is hitting his head against Bohorodychne months. As recently as Monday, Ukraine announced that it had repelled an attack on the village. Yet now we know that there are Ukrainian forces back Bohorodychne, and sat on its now-separate supply line.
This means that the map drawers will have to reconfigure the entire front line about 5-8 km back, and we don’t know how. wide That is the entrance. Did the Ukrainians themselves advance from Bohorodychne, or did they come from the direction of Dovenke? In fact, what is happening in Dovhen’ke? It would be fun if Russia lost that plot of land that cost them countless lives and equipment to capture.
So already, there, Ukraine has occupied more land Russia did in three weeks in 1-2 days. Of course, none of this is special strategic value, which lends me to believe that this isn’t so much a counterattack, as it is Ukraine moving into territory that Russia has ceded. According to all reports, from all sides, Russian troops looted Studenok and Yaremiivka before taking their cargo. They were not expelled. It seems unlikely that somehow the Russian forces were trapped in Pasika as well. Perhaps all access has been abandoned.
But are we just talking about the way to cross this river? Or is Russia rethinking the whole Izium approach? Rumors are that Russia is hollowing out Izium to reinforce Kherson, but actual evidence is zero.
Today, Russia launched a direct attack on the Ukrainian stronghold of Advyka in southeastern Donbas. This smoldering wreckage of a town is near the city of Donetsk, which Russia has occupied since 2014, and has resisted everything Russia has thrown at it. eight years. War criminal Igor Girkin, the man who led the Donbass forces in 2014 and is now a fierce critic of Russia’s war (from the nationalist side, not the peace-seeking side).
To summarize, he believes that Ukraine is actually making inroads into Kherson, so why would Russia bang its head against the Avdivka brick wall, which has multiple lines of defense. Regardless of Russia’s wisdom or lack thereof, the town and its defenses are currently under attack tough (See here And here). If Russia is facing a shortage of artillery shells, they have decided to concentrate them here. This is nothing new for Avdivka. Here we are inside 2020:
So maybe Izum-based forces are being sent here, or maybe to Kherson, or maybe anywhere! Fog of War is definitely fun.
Speaking of Kherson, Ukraine is combining bridge-busting with new territorial advances, expanding its bridgehead on the Russian side of the Inhulets River at Andreyivka and Lozov. It’s only two settlements, but given that this bridgehead was considered dead a few weeks ago, the fact that it’s still there and expanding (so well supplied) is a good sign.
Russia is in a bind. With the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson now out of commission, supplies would have to be routed around Nova Kakhovka, a 90 km journey, but the bridges in Kherson from that direction had already been hit and damaged, and if they were to If not, they will be cut off. already has DefMon Did some calculations How much did Russian troops consume in Kherson? Assuming 15 full-strength Russian BTGs, his calculations came to 225 trucks per day, or four barges.
At about 1 kilometer wide, the Dnipro cannot be forded by pontoons, so Russia operates a ferry service using four of those large barges.
As you can see above, those barges won’t last long, and in any case, Kherson is a terrible way to resupply. Rows on either side will feature the delicious HIMARS and Excalibur long-range precision-guided 155 mm weapon targets. And when the Russian guns run out of ammunition, it’s their whole game. They have nothing left.
If those Izeum forces are being transferred to Kherson, well, they are too late. Nova Kakhovka would make more sense, as Russia would want to protect its precious water supply to Crimea. But … it makes my “cut off the whole area” scenario even more appealing. It is easy to isolate Melitopol-Nova Kakhovka from both the Crimea and the East. Any Russian forces that rush into that area could find themselves in a trap.
Over the weekend, an OSINT man on Twitter posted several images of what he believed to be posts of Russian Rosguardia (Putin’s personal national guard) leaving the city and its outposts.
Today, we are looking at pictures of leading Russian troops the south In the Crimea. And not just any army. Despite what the caption says, they are the “elite” VDV paratroopers who we know were manning the Kherson defense. (Ignore him saying it’s Rosguardia, he was later corrected. They are VDV.)
They may be running out of fire before they are completely surrounded, except for the suction cannon fodder for the defense of Man Kherson from the Donbass. Or they may be moving as part of a regular troop rotation. So many unanswered questions!
In any case, things are starting to pick up as the Ukrainian telegraph urges the recapture of Kherson—publicly because of the weather (autumn rains are coming), but really because some Europeans trust that when the weather turns cold and Russia uses gas to blackmail. the continent