The fog of war is thick, and preaching makes it even more muddy. The Ukrainian government is not exempt. For example, the Ukrainian government is saying:
Ukraine now has almost completely run out of weapons for Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies for donations, Danieleuk said. Said. Ukraine urgently needs to move to a longer border and more sophisticated Western systems, but they have recently made commitments, and not enough to match Russia’s huge firepower, he said.
But Ukraine’s Defense Ministry also said:
To date, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has ensured the supply of 150 artillery platforms of 155 mm caliber to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The stockpile of ammunition of this caliber is already 10% larger than the stockpile of large-caliber shell of the Soviet type already existing before 24 February 2022. In addition, these new shells are more efficient than their Soviet counterparts, and therefore less consumed.
So either Ukraine has more artillery shells than at the start of the war, or “insufficient quantities” have been committed. What is this
Similarly, the same Ukrainian government is claiming:
Mikhailo Podoliak, Zelensky’s adviser, said this week that between 100 and 200 Ukrainian soldiers were being killed every day.
Arestovich gave Fagin estimates that the daily death toll for Ukrainians was “200 to 300 deaths, not less”, but the figures fluctuate.
The military adviser claimed that while about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, Russia’s losses were even greater.
A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the number was 50-100. Here we have two separate presidential advisers somewhere between 100 and 300. It is quite widespread. And they all claim that Russian numbers are even higher. Yet every day, the Defense Ministry claims 100-250 Russian murders. Today, it was just 100:
So if Ukraine claims that it has killed 100 Russians, and those deaths are more than the deaths in Ukraine … then the death toll in Ukraine cannot be 100-300. And Russia’s blood is not flowing. But Ukraine insisted that Russia was suffering more casualties. Therefore, on this front, Ukraine’s claims are also contradictory.
That being said, we don’t know what numbers are. At the moment, it is in Ukraine’s interest to exaggerate its death toll in order to create urgency in Western allies and arms shipments. Ukraine clearly acknowledges that there was much prosperity and celebration after Russia’s humiliating withdrawal from the Kyiv and Sumi regions. This new stage is an artillery slugfest, and Ukraine wants more, so it is increasing rhetoric among its allies to act faster.
But even there, it has lost touch with its politicians, who are screaming for destruction and sadness:
Ukraine urgently needs to move to a longer border and more sophisticated Western systems, but they have recently made commitments, and not enough to match Russia’s huge firepower, he said.
And Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, which is like “we got it”:
It is noteworthy, for example, that the initial request of the Armed Forces for 155 mm artillery units by the Ministry of Defense has been met 90%.
Either Ukraine is getting what it is asking for, or it is not getting what it is asking for. I believe in soldiers before I believe in politicians. Either way, they are clearly not co-ordinating their statements and claims. And when they do, as both MLRS requests for rocket artillery, it is clear that yes, Ukraine desperately needs long-range rocket artillery.
Information warfare is part of the war. Information, and its ability to change public opinion and perception may be more important than the M777 Howitzer. This could be the difference between Germany, France and Italy, which have done a lot of work, and the heavy weapons Ukraine needs to hold the line in Donbass, and behind the difficult task of regaining its lost territory. , New requirement.
Someone in my last thread wondered what the overall state of the war was, perhaps we were very optimistic here, especially the stories in the media (as above) claiming that Ukraine is out of ammunition and suffering temporary losses. Is So let’s look at the bigger picture
Today, June 12:
About six weeks ago, May 2:
If you find it difficult to see changes, it is because you literally need to zoom in to see any changes. Russia has a little more territory in Donbass, measured ten kilometers earlier, and Ukraine has a little more territory around Kherson and Kharkiv, which also measures ten kilometers.
So all of Russia’s hysterics make no sense at all, with Severodonetsk reduced to rubble, a strategically irrelevant city on the far eastern tip of Ukrainian territory. This is literally a point on a comprehensive map.
Russia is exhausting itself trying to take that small corner of the territory, and this is the easiest task to be faced anytime soon. Beyond Severodonetsk, Lisichensk is protected by high ground and river barriers. Meanwhile, any progressive Russian troops, and their artillery, are within range of all Ukrainian artillery, blowing up everything that moves.
For their part, Russia has honored one of its winning strategies – flatten a city, send some poor souls to see if there are any survivors. Does that probe get smacked? Oh well. Must be sucked! Turn debris into smaller debris. Send to the next probe. Ladder, rinse, repeat, until all that is left is dust and crater. Head to the next city. Like dovhen’ke.
Zoom in on the correct photo. This is amazing. (Incidentally, there have been conflicting reports about who owns Dwenke. Pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian telegram sources announced the occupation of the town on Friday and Saturday, but today, Ukraine’s general staff Claimed It was still in their hands. How … is something still alive in that moon?)
Russia’s “bomb everything until nothing is left” strategy is slow. See, well, Dovhen’ke. It takes a lot of time and manpower which Russia cannot easily change. And Ukraine estimates that Russia fires 50-60,000 artillery shells per day Days. Assuming this is an exact number (see first half of this update), can Russia continue this momentum indefinitely?
Ukraine has fewer guns and claims to fire only 5-6,000 shells a day. But remember, as the Ministry of Defense stated above, “these new shells are more effective than their Soviet counterparts, and therefore less consumed.” Also, you don’t need a lot of shells when you’re not busy destroying random civilian infrastructure. The Goals When you are counting the shells.
If there’s one thing the West has a lot of, it’s cheap artillery shells. Each costs 800 (compared to an exclusive guided artillery round, costing 130,000). With a large number of Western artillery shells still arriving in Ukraine, this and a steady supply of shells could be a great equalizer. MLRS and HIMARS rocket artillery will make Russian life even more difficult.
A single HIMARS / MLRS platoon, well supplied with ammunition pods (real challenge), can cover almost the entire Donbass front line and beyond. Russia’s slow pace will face even greater obstacles. And let’s not forget, Russia has not had to deal with this Severodonetsk / Popasna push with long supply lines. Russia has not yet demonstrated its ability to maintain more than a few dozen kilometers of supply lines.
The time to really worry would be if Russia manages to capture the double strongholds of Slovinsk and Kramatorsk. Given that Russia is still struggling to subjugate Severodonetsk, which is far more exposed and isolated than those two cities, I am not at all concerned about their imminent capture.
But if Russia’s advance rate is subtle, it does not mean that Ukraine is in a better position to regain lost territory. Ukraine faces the same challenges as the Russians – in their cautious counter-attacks around the Kherson, Kharkiv and Izum regions, advancing Ukrainian forces at the mercy of Russian artillery fire. The wide open and mostly flat area of the country (as well as the proliferation of drones). Not suitable for covert attacks. Russia, meanwhile, is busy digging Their Fortifications around the main Ukrainian occasions of advance.
The biggest challenge will not be Stop Russia, it will Reverse Their current benefits. And this is where the outcome of this war is blurred. Russia will not fulfill it Targets, but that doesn’t mean Ukraine will.